【TopDeck MTGA 限制观察】2023 万智牌限制赛「最佳」（上）

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本期目录

01. Sierkovitz 数据大神介绍

02. 数据统计方法介绍

03. Best Commons

 

见下期

04. Best Uncommons

05. Card of the Year

 

 

这是一篇搬运 + 翻译稿。原文是 Sierkovitz 在 12.31 发布于 MTG Arena Zone 上的《Best Limited Magic: The Gathering Cards of 2023》。

「Best」的含义有很多，本文仅简单译为「最佳」。Sierkovitz 对「最佳」的定义主要来自 17 Lands 玩家使用这张牌的胜率。

点击「查看原文」阅读原文。

 

特别声明：刚开始尝试做 Pro 内容翻译，难免错误和理解不到位，特别欢迎指正 & 讨论。

 

01 Sierkovitz 数据大神介绍

 

Sierkovitz 是一位万智牌数据处理的大神，他从 2022.7 开始在 MTG Arena Zone 上发表一些基于数据分析推导出来的万智牌思路或攻略。

 

 

Sierkovitz 除了在 MTG Arena Zone 上发表文章，还在 Youtube 上有自己的播客（Sierkovitz）。Marshall 和 LSV 主理的播客 Limited Resources 从 2021.6 开始会定期邀请 Sierkovitz 参与他们的节目。

 

Sierkovitz 自己的播客对本篇文章的内容做了更加细致的讲解。有兴趣的朋友请自行前往。

 

那现在让我们回到这篇文章中来：《Best Limited Magic: The Gathering Cards of 2023》

 

02 数据统计方法介绍

 

Another year is almost behind us, which makes it a perfect time to look at what it brought to us. I will look at the best limited cards of the year. Best commons and uncommons in each color, best signpost uncommons and the most atrocious bombs. Great moment to remember what brought us joy or frustration in the last 12 months.

 

又一年即将结束，是时候回顾一下这一年万智牌都给我们带来了什么。我们将一起看看今年「最佳」的限制赛单卡，每种颜色中最佳的铁牌和银牌，还有那些思路银牌，以及那些让人又爱又恨的强力炸弹。让我们一起回味一下过去 12 个月里，万智牌给我们带来快乐或挫败的时刻吧！

 

小编私货：2023 已经过去了，谨以此翻译文纪念一年来一起奋战的万智牌小队。希望我们是彼此万智牌上的最佳记忆。

 

But how to compare the cards from different sets? It is not straightforward. Different sets will have different average win rates and that makes comparison tricky – I won’t want to give all the prizes to a set that just had the highest internal win rate. And if the difference is large – that is a trap that can be real. See the distribution of win rates in a set with an average of 52% and 58% – cards that have a great win rate in 52% win rate set would be only mediocre in a 58% win rate set.

 

不过，如何比较不同系列的牌呢？这并不是一件简单的事情。不同系列的平均胜率各不相同，这使得比较变得复杂——我可不想把所有奖品都给一个（17 Lands 的玩家）胜率最高的系列。而且，如果系列间胜率差距很大——那可能真的有坑。比如，在平均胜率为 52% 和 58% 的系列中，一个在 52% 胜率系列中表现出色的卡牌，在 58% 胜率系列中可能只是普通水平。

 

To avoid that I can use a maths strategy called normalization. I will recalculate all the win rates in each set in such a way that the average will be at 50%. This will pull both those curves to the left, but the 58% win rate set will be pulled by more – which means now I can compare cards from both sets and the differences in sets win rate won’t matter.

 

为了避免这种情况，我可以使用一种数学方法叫做归一化。重新计算每个系列中的胜率，使得平均胜率达到 50% 。这会将这两条曲线都拉向左侧，但是58%胜率的系列将被拉得更多——这意味着现在我可以比较两个系列的卡牌，而系列胜率的差异就不重要了。

 

Mind that this means win rates you will see in this analysis will be much lower that the win rates you are used to. Average win rate of 17Lands.com users is well above 50% so normalisation will result in lower win rates. I look at the 5 main sets from 2023 Arena: ONE, MOM, LTR, WOE and LCI. With those methodology obstacles out of the way, we can focus on fun part. Reliving 2023 limited.

 

请注意，这意味着在本分析中你将看到的胜率要（比 17 Lands 上显示的胜率）低得多，远低于你所习惯的胜率。17 Lands 用户的平均胜率远高于50%，因此归一化会导致更低的胜率被展现出来。我将研究 2023 年 MTGA 的 5 个主要系列：ONE（非瑞克西亚：万界归一）、MOM（邪军压境）、LTR（魔戒：中州传说）、WOE（艾卓仙踪）和LCI（依夏兰迷窟）。克服了这些方**障碍，我们可以专注于有趣的部分，重温 2023 年的限定赛。

 

03 Best Commons 最佳铁牌

 

白色

 

LCI and ONE were the sets where white was the most dominant, and that can be seen. Oltec Cloud Guard came out on top with 53% normalised win rate, but close behind it was the Miner's Guidewing at 52.9%. Both cards were the staples of aggressively tinted white decks in LCI, using evasion to put pressure on the opponent. Another LCI card in top 10 is Petrify.

 

LCI 和 ONE 是白色最占优势的系列，这一点是显而易见的。欧尔特克翔云卫以 53% 的胜率位居榜首，但矿工向导鸟紧随其后，胜率达 52.9%。这两张牌是 LCI 中沾白快攻套牌的主力打手，通过穿透异能给对手施加压力。另一张排名前十的 LCI 单卡是石化术。

 

But despite not winning the best card in this category, ONE was a clear winner. 5 of the top 10 white cards of 2023 were from the set, including Basilica Shepherd a pushed 5-drop, Crawling Chorus, disturbing both as an art and as something opponent plays on turn 1 and another pacifism variant in Planar Disruption. It was a good year for Pacifisms in general, with some other ones just outside of top 10. WotC did their homework on the decline of Aura-based removal.

 

尽管没有获得白牌中的最佳单卡，但 ONE 却毫无疑问是赢家。白牌 Top10 中有 5 张来自这个系列，包括那张势不可挡的 5 费宗堂牧者，还有那令人毛骨悚然的匍行唱团（无论是看画儿，还是对手在第一回合就把 ta 拍出来），以及和平主义的升级版时空干扰。总的来说，这是和平主义类单卡的好年份，还有一些和平主义类单卡堪堪排在 Top10 之外。威世智对贴皮类去除的衰落做了一些功课。

 

Only 2 cards outside of LCI and ONE made the list in two of my personal favourites. Aerial Boost is a perfect combat trick, letting you cast it for free in combat, impacting the board state very efficiently. Hopeful Vigil carried white decks in WOE all by itself doing lots of little but impactful things in every archetype white touched. No cards from LTR on the list is a testament to the weakness of white in that format. Designers really took to heart just how disadvantaged was Gondor against the might of Sauron. Maybe a little bit too much even.

 

LCI 和 ONE 之外，只有两张牌进入了 Top10。翔空推力是一张完美的战斗 Trick，让你可以在战斗中免费施放，非常高效地影响战局。怀望守夜几乎独挡一面，为 WOE 中的沾白套牌提供了许多小而有影响力的支持。而 LTR 中没有任何卡片入选 Top10，证明了白色在那个系列中的弱势。设计者们真的深刻体会到了刚铎在对抗索伦时的劣势，这甚至有点过分了。

 

蓝色

 

Preening Champion lived up to its name. Not only was it the best blue common of 2023, but the best common of the year of all colors. 55% normalised win rte puts it as an A- grade on the list, with only one other card since MID achieving that – Inspiring Overseer. Worth noting that this is the second, but not the last, best common in a color that creates two bodies. That extra 1/1 looks powerful if you couple it with a card that would almost be good enough on its own.

 

彩羽斗士应该有 ta 的名字。ta 不仅是 2023 年最佳的蓝色铁牌，也是各个颜色中的最佳的铁牌。55%的胜率让 ta 在列表上获得 A- 评级（这是 Sierkovitz 的另一套评级体系），MID（依尼翠：黯夜猎踪）以来，只有励志监管使达到了这一水准。值得一提的是，这是第二张但并非最后一张，通过一带一异能成为了所在颜色的最佳铁牌。如果将额外带出来的 1/1 生物与一张本身几乎足够出色的牌配合起来，其威力将会十分强大。

 

MOM’s blue was great in general, with 4 other cards from the set making it into the top 10. Ephara's Dispersal was a nightmare to play against – blowing combat wide open with only one blue mana. Eyes of Gitaxias provided a solid body for a reasonable price when paid in instalments. Saiba Cryptomancer was unassuming but potent in spoiling opponent’s removal and Assimilate Essence was a conditional counterspell that stayed relevant till late game. It is the support of those cards that contributed to Preening Champion’s success – something I hope it won’t forget in its acceptance speech.

 

MOM 的蓝牌整体表现不俗，该系列中的另外 4 张牌也跻身 Top10。厄芳拉的驱散简直是对手的噩梦——只需一点蓝色法术力就能在战斗中改变局面。吉塔厦之眼的费用合理，还能分期付款，不亏牌还能提供一个坚实的身板。赛博派守密术士虽然不起眼，但在破坏对手的去除上却非常有效。而同化菁华则是一张有条件的反咒法术，在对局后期的也能发挥作用。正是这些牌的支持促成了彩羽斗士的成功——希望 ta 在发表获奖感言时不要忘记这一点。

 

LCI did pretty well too. Waterwind Scout doesn’t bring an extra body with it but a Map token is not far off. Cogwork Wrestler is yet another of the annoying 1 mana interaction spells that make combat a nightmare and Oaken Siren combines pressure and ramp very well in Artifact-centric decks.

 

LCI 的表现也相当不错。游风斥候虽然不会制造额外的生物，但造一个地图也不赖。齿轮摔角械又是一个让战斗变得令人头疼的 1 费互动。而橡木塞连在神器套牌中，很好地结合了打血和加速。

 

LTR is represented by the core cards for the spell decks – Birthday Escape and Glorious Gale. Both let those decks get tempted by the ring efficiently, thus leading to a better card selection and faster clock. But blue in 2023 was a bit of a hit or miss, with no cards from ONE or WOE making the top 10.

 

LTR 能跻身榜单的是咒语套牌的核心卡：抽身寿诞和辉煌狂风。这两张卡能高效的触发魔戒引诱效果，更好的过牌，节奏也很快。但在 2023 年，蓝色卡牌有些不稳定，没有来自 ONE 或 WOE 的牌进入 Top10。

 

黑色

 

Black is where the LTR shines. Claim the Precious is the top black card, combining the efficient removal with the Tempting mechanic. But there is so much more. Dunland Crebain was the best black creature, Torment of Gollum was something that allowed to control the opponent’s hand while keeping playing to the board, Shelob's Ambush was a very powerful combat trick (my personal favourite of the format was playing Bowmasters in response to Lorien Revealed and Shelob’s Ambushing opponent’s whole board) and Uruk-hai Berserker was just a very solid creature that added to that package. All that with great uncommons made black in LTR a formidable color and the one to beat even in the late format.

 

黑牌是 LTR 系列绝对的亮点。收获宝贝是顶级的黑牌，结合了高效的去除和魔戒诱惑机制。但这还不是 LTR 的全部。黑蛮地克拉班是最好的黑色生物，而咕噜受难则是非常好的手牌破坏，同时保持对战场的影响。希洛布突袭是非常强大的战斗 Trick（我个人最喜欢的是在对手使用揭现罗瑞恩和希洛布突袭时，以奥克弓手响应，从而打乱对手的节奏）。

 

乌鲁克族狂战士则是一个非常可靠的生物，为整个套牌提供支持。加上出色的银牌，使得 LTR 的黑色成为了一种令人敬畏的颜色，即使在环境后期也是非常强大。

 

The list of top black commons is completed with powerful removal from each set. Deadly Derision was the black highlight of MOM – instant speed, leaving a treasure, unconditional – all that you want from a removal spell. And it had a great companion in Final Flourish – a flexible removal capable of dealing with the early threats but growing with the game. ONE contributed Anoint with Affliction – good on rate but excellent if you could enable Corrupted mechanic. WOE gave us Candy Grapple – an excellent removal that through Bargain enabled other shenanigans with Hatching Plans or another entry on the list – Hopeless Nightmare. This card led was perfect for an attrition plan – limiting your opponent’s options while giving you a nice sacrifice fodder that led to card selection later in the game. LCI’s black didn’t any goodies, but LTR compensated for it and some.

 

黑牌 Top10 的其他牌就是各个系列的强力去除了。致命嘲弄是 MOM 中黑牌的亮点——瞬间、无条件去除、造一个珍宝——这就是你对一张去除所期望的一切。而 ta 的好伙伴是绝命篇章——一张灵活的去除咒语，能够处理早期的威胁，但随着对局的进行也能继续变强。ONE 贡献了折磨赐圣——在费用上很不错，但如果你能触发腐化机制，ta 就会变得出色。

 

WOE 给了我们糖果噬咬——一张出色的去除，通过加码机制，能够跟策划计谋和无望梦魇（也进入了黑牌 Top10）打配合。无望梦魇非常适合消耗战术——限制对手的选择，同时为你提供不错的牺牲对象，从而在对局后期对牌库进行影响。

 

LCI 的黑牌就没有什么能入选的了。

 

红色

 

To continue the trend of body + 1/1 cards doing well, the best red common of the year was Chimney Rabble. A 4 mana 3/3 that comes together with a 1/1 is a staple mid-power common for years, but add haste and voila – top common. Which is not that surprising when you realise that Haste is worth a good half mana on a card. Chimney Rabble surprised many, me included, with ho powerful it was but part of its power was in red being very good in ONE in general.

 

继续一带一生物牌的出色表现，今年最佳红色铁牌非烟囱暴民莫属。一张 4 费的 3/3 生物，再附带一个 1/1。多年来，这样的配置一直是中等强度铁牌的代表，但是给 3/3 加了敏捷，就成了顶铁。当你意识到敏捷在一张牌上的价值能达到半点法术力的时候，这就不足为奇了。烟囱暴民让许多人，包括我在内，都感到惊讶。因为红色在整个 ONE 环境中都表现出色，所以 ta 的强度也获得了加成。

 

Apart from Rabble there were 4 more ONE cards in red’s top 10. Hexgold Slash was a Shock Variant that made more expensive Toxic creatures in green almost unplayable. Nothing worse than spending 5 mana on a creature opponent kills for one mana. Barbed Batterfistwas an excellent 2 drop that left a useful equipment behind. Furnace Strider was another hasty threat with a solid body, that also could make some of your other threats hasty which was key in games where you were racing against your opponent. This importance of haste is what made ONE one of the fastest formats in memory at least in terms of the game duration in turns. But there was a bit more grindy side to ONE red – Axiom Engravermade the top 10 – a 1/3 that let you rummage a card couple of times. The cheap rummaging creatures were a bit of a discovery in recent years with Scrapwork Mutt being dominant in BRO and Volatile Wanderglyph doing decent things in LCI (despite not breaking into the top 10 here.

 

除了烟囱暴民之外，红色 Top10 中还有 4 张 ONE 的牌。金角板斩击是电震的变体，ta 使得绿牌中费用更高的下毒生物几乎无法发挥作用。没有什么比对手用 1 费就把你的 5 费生物去除更糟糕的事了。

 

带刺轰拳是一张出色的 2 费生物，还能留下一个有用的武具。

 

熔炉神行兽是另一个敏捷威胁，拥有坚实的身材，还能让你的其他威胁获得敏捷行动，这在你和对手抢血时至关重要。敏捷的重要性使得 ONE 成为了在对局回合数最少的系列之一。

 

ONE 的红牌也有过牌的能力——镌言师进入了 Top10 ——一张 1/3 生物，让你多次调整手牌。最近几年，廉价的调整手牌生物开始扮演一定角色，破烂杂犬在 BRO 中表现很好，而易怒漫游符在 LCI 中也表现不俗（尽管在这里没有进入前十名）。

 

LTR was represented by only one common, but what a common. Rally at the Hornburg was powerful and fun to play. 2 hasty 1/1 Humans on a spell tapped into many synergies at the same time and seeing it played on turn 2 against you when you were on the draw usually spelled trouble. Also MOM has only one card on the list: Volcanic Spite. Great removal, upgraded version of an already great card – no wonder it did well.

 

WOE is represented 3 times and in all 3 cases it is the burn spells that did well. Torch the Tower Flick a Coin and Cut In formed a diverse base for controlling creatures of all sizes, which was a very strong point of red in that format. All of them played out very differently, had their small advantages and rewarded smart plays and removal management.

 

Yet again, no LCI cards on the list.

 

LTR 只有一张铁牌进入 Top10，但这张牌真是太强了。号角堡奋威能造两个 1/1 敏捷人类，并且形成很多配合。如果对手二回合就释放这张牌，而你是后手，那真的很头疼。

 

MOM 系列中只有一张牌进入 Top10：火山之怨。强力的去除，在一些原有的强力去除上再次升级，难怪它表现出色。

 

WOE 系列有三张烧进入 Top10。点燃塔楼、轻弹硬币和及时介入构成了红色在 WOE 中强大的基础，能够应对各种大小的生物。它们各自展现出不同的特点，让聪明的出牌和去除选择得到了应有的回报。

 

LCI 没有牌进入 Top10。

 

绿色

 

Green had a clear winner in Contagious Vorrac. 3 mana for a 3/3 that draws a card, even if it is only a land, is great. And a fail-case of proliferating or, in some case being able to proliferate instead of getting another land, is a cherry on top. But that is the end of good news for green commons. All the other ones on the list have a significantly lower win rate, making green the least successful color of 2023. There two more ONE cards on the list – mainly dragged up by the power on RG archetype in that format: a solid 4-drop in Lattice-Blade Mantis and a fight spell in Ruthless Predation.

 

带原博锐兽中在绿牌中一枝独秀。3 费 3/3 额外抓一张地牌，这非常棒。而且即使没找到地，还可以进行增殖。在某些情况下，甚至可以主动选择进行增殖，而不是抓一张地，这个选择权真是锦上添花。但这就是绿色铁牌仅有的好消息了。Top10 中的其他牌的胜率显著较低，使得绿色成为 2023 年最不成功的颜色。

 

Top10 中还有两张 ONE 的牌——主要是由于该系列中红绿色组的强大力量而被拉高。栅刃螳螂是一张可靠的 4 费生物，而无情野猎则是一张战斗 Trick。

 

But the real winner for green is LCI. 6 of the top 10 green commons are from Ixalan. 3 are Dinosaurs in Pathfinding Axejaw, Armored Kincaller and Cavern Stomper. Poison Dart Frog is a mana dork that helps churning out those expensive spells early and turns into an annoying blocker later in the game. Staggering Size is a great finisher combat trick letting your large creatures trample over tiny blockers for significant damage. Huatli's Final Strike is a pretty powerful bite spell for a common, with the boost in power allowing to efficiently kill something while threatening more damage. Green’s power in LCI is mainly driven by RG Dinos archetype and WGs good performance as a “I am not synergistic really but cards are powerful enough” deck.

 

LCI 是绿牌中的真正赢家。在绿色铁牌 Top10 中占有 6 席。其中 3 张是探路斧颚龙、装甲唤族龙和洞窟跺地龙。

 

毒镖蛙是个加速，有助于在早期释放高费的咒语，后期又能变成令人讨厌的阻挡者。巨大体形是个出色的战斗 Trick，让你的大型生物能够践踏微小的挡路者，造成重大伤害（在这个 LCI 系列中比较重要）。华特莉纳命击是相当强大的去除咒语，通过增加力量可以有效地消灭某些东西，同时产生更多的伤害威胁。

 

LCI 中绿牌的强大主要来自红绿恐龙和白绿表现良好的「我并不真的有协同性，但卡牌足够强大」的思路。

 

Only one card from any other expansion made the list in Hamlet Glutton. A 7 mana 6/6 trampler that somehow almost always cost 5 mana thanks to its bargain ability proves the point that chunky evasion is the name of the game for green. Unfortunately neither MOM nor LTR didn’t contribute to the top 10. Especially in LTR green felt like the weakest of colors. Its best common, Enraged Huorn, didn’t even make the top 30 best green commons of the year.

 

其他系列中只有一张牌入选了 Top10：噬屋饕客，一张 7 费的 6/6 践踏。由于加码异能，它几乎总是只需 5 费就能释放，证明了在绿色中，足够粗壮才是王道（这句话的意思不是很确定，供参考）。不过 MOM 和 LTR 都没有牌能进入 Top10。尤其是在 LTR 中，绿色似乎是最弱的颜色，这个系列中最好的铁牌——盛怒胡奥恩，竟然没能进入前 30 名。

 

All in all, the best common of the year is by far Preening Champion. Yes, it was annoying to play against it but lets agree to fondly remember those times we had it in our decks.

 

总的来说，今年的最佳铁牌非彩羽斗士莫属。是的，面对它确实让人头大，还是让我们怀念一下在你的牌组里使用它的美好时光吧！

 

最佳银牌和 Card of the Year 见下期~

 

再次特别声明：刚开始尝试做 Pro 内容翻译，难免错误和理解不到位，特别欢迎指正 & 讨论。

 

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如果觉得这篇内容有用，也非常欢迎转发给你的牌手朋友。

 

 

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